Could Aden Duale be Kenya’s 3rd Prime Minister
As the referendum question burns on and politicians continue throwing bricks at the Punguza Mzigo proposals, there may be surprises awaiting Kenyans. As the astute politician with the biggest political war chest, Deputy President William Ruto, throws traps for the dynasties, confusing and confounding friends and foes alike, his party will romp to power by producing the highest number of Members of Parliament and will be given the constitutional right to elect a Prime Minister. Ruto’s party will win both the popular vote and the highest number of parliamentarians.
The wafugaji politics is taking shape as the Deputy President and current Majority Leader have been cultivating and wooing these numerically strong block of parliamentarians for a long time and it is what will deliver power to them. As you may have noticed, in the first term of Jubilee rule, the President was hands off everything, and his Deputy was ruling the roost. William Ruto did not waste time and has utilized his time building infinite war chest and cultivating friends. It appears it has worked for him. He has elected his troops to parliament and to various other positions including Governors, placed many of his soldiers at strategic positions and by the time the President woke up to this reality, Ruto was close to romping home with the pride.
Yesterday Duale said he supports a parliamentary system of government (read the creation of a Prime Minister position). Until recently, both his boss and his party were against any creation of new political seats, which the DP termed as ”creation of positions for individuals”. What has changed? What has changed is, the URP wing of Jubilee has seen that they cannot stop a referendum just like Ruto who was in the NO Group in 2010 was defeated by the Yes of current ODM leader Raila Odinga and then President Mwai Kibaki whose hand was almost forced. Now that URP realized it cannot stop a referendum, they want to manipulate it to suit their interest. This is where the Wafugaji equation and Duale’s yesterday utterances come in. Dont forget that politicians are always angling for what aids them keep power, it is never in the interest of the country or the people.
There are 105 Parliamentarians in the current legislature who subscribe to what the DP and Duale are concocting as a Wafugaji block. Almost to a man, they support and are very likely to support William Ruto in any political duel. Raila who is the other likely horse has failed to persuade this block and therefore is sure to lose 105 members of parliament. This block includes few nominees but this does change the equation by much. With this block and his South Rift troops, few from Central who will defy the king and many from Coastal Kenya, Ruto and team are sure to sail home with the party that will produce the highest number of M.Ps, everything else remaining constant.
Ruto will be asked to form a government and parliamentarians will elect the Prime Minister. Ruto will front his man, Aden Duale, the current Majority Leader and Garissa Township MP for the position. And this is how Duale’s yesterday’s ‘joke’ of ”A wafugaji child to become the Prime Minister” will come to pass.