Is Raila Losing Grip in Luo Nyanza?
Losing in Embakasi South by-election is one thing. Losing in Ugenya is everything. Is Agwambo losing grip on ODM and its adherent supporters? As succession politics hots up the Deputy President Dr William Ruto’s hand manifest itself in the mini-polls of Ugenya and Embakasi South Constituencies.
The outcome of the by-election results in Ugenya and Embakasi South constituencies is an indication that former PM and AU Special Envoy for Infrastructural Development is losing influence at the grassroot level in lieu of the fact that his party lost the two parliamentary seats it contested and which it has vigorously campaigned for.The former Prime minister went himself to Embakasi to campaign for the formidable party nominee Mr Irshad Sumra.
In Ugenya, David Ochieng of the little known Movement for Development and Growth (MDG) party carried the day by defeating the immediate former MP Chris Karan and joins the list of smaller party candidates who have defied the hero-worshiping of the ODM party leader. Olago Aluoch (Kisumu Town West), Shakel Shabeer ( Kisumu Town East), Onyango Koyoo ( Kasipul) have all gone against the party wishes in the last two general elections and secured their tickets through other little known parties of their choice.
In Embakasi South, the Wiper Candidate and the immediate former MP defeated the ODM candidate Irshad Sumra by a bigger margin. Hon. Mawathe received a huge support from a section of Jubilee party opposed to the famous 9th March 2018 handshake between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and H.E. Uhuru Kenyatta, the President. How and what impact this will have on the Building Bridges Initiative between Uhuru and Raila is not known.
On the campaign trail in Ugenya, ODM claimed that David Ochieng is a project of the Deputy President and his campaign is funded by the DP, a claim that has not been refuted by Ruto or his team. This claim appears to be fuelled by the celebration apparent in the tweets by the DP and his team. After the win in Embakasi by-election and while Sumra was crying foul play, the Deputy President tweeted a congratulatory message to Mr Mwathe.
The Senate Majority Leader Murkomen followed by tweeting
In a church fundraising, the wiper candidate who is now the MP-elect is seen with the DP, an indication that the Deputy President was probably bankrolling his campaign as the Mr Moneybag, giving a glimpse of how DP Ruto may play his succession game plan.
Agwambo looks like he is losing his grip on the common man in Nyanza, his stronghold. In Luo Nyanza, they say when the king is stripped naked, the bare truth is that the end of the dynasty is near. Could this be the beginning of the end of Raila’s political domination of Nyanza and Western and indeed the country’s?